Trump says Iran war "close to over" amid hopes for more negotiations
Markets have done well to hold the sizable gaps after version 1 of the US-Iranian ceasefire, and if there is reason for optimism, it’s that markets are expecting a version 2 of the ceasefire relatively soon(?).
The Russell 2000 (IWM) returned to a net bullish technical state as the base breakout is on the way to challenging $270. Since the test of the 200-day MA, there hasn’t been an opportunity for ’value’ buyers to step in on a pullback. This might happen when $270 is tested.
The S&P 500 may be in the process of edging a new breakout of declining resistance that is an important level on the weekly chart. All-time highs are next, but I would like to see this breakout hold first. Technicals here are net bullish too.
The Nasdaq has a little clear air to work with. The breakout is solid, and technicals are net bullish, but it won’t be the first to test all-time highs. However, traders can take their lead from the Russell 2000 and S&P 500.
Bitcoin has been the unusual steady ship as it works to improve itself after an extensive sell-off. There should be enough to see a test of the 200-day MA as part of a larger base recovery. Technicals are net positive.
The one index that managed a new high and has accelerated higher is the Semiconductor Index. The gaps may amount to a blow off top, but given the index came close to testing its 200-day MA it has probably done enough to cool down and go again.
For now, expectation is for rallies to continue and challenge all-time highs, when some profit-taking can be expected. From there, we can reassess markets.