Trump says Iran war "close to over" amid hopes for more negotiations
U.S. stocks are pointing to a positive open, adding to solid gains in the previous session as optimism grows around a potential resolution in the Middle East. Investors are also digesting corporate earnings and softer-than-expected producer price inflation data.
US Futures
Dow futures 0.08%, S&P futures 0.28%, and Nasdaq futures 0.55%
In Europe
- US stocks rise, led by tech stocks
- Optimism of US-Iran peace is revived
- US PPI cooler than expected at 0.5% MoM
- Oil falls back below $100
Stocks Rise to Multi-Week Highs on Resolution Hopes
U.S. stocks are pointing to a positive open, adding to solid gains in the previous session as optimism grows around potential resolution in the Middle East. Investors are also digesting corporate earnings and softer-than-expected producer price inflation data.
Geopolitical headlines remain the primary market driver, with sentiment improving on reports that the U.S. and Iran could resume peace talks in Pakistan later this week. President Trump has maintained the blockade of Iranian ports but indicated that Tehran has reached out to continue negotiations.
This combination — continued pressure alongside hopes of diplomatic engagement — has helped push oil prices below $100 and Treasury yields down, supporting equities and highlighting how sensitive markets remain to developments in the region. A credible diplomatic off-ramp could further boost risk appetite.
At the same time, easing oil prices are helping to reduce immediate inflation concerns. U.S. PPI rose to 4.0% year-on-year in March from 3.4% in February, but this was below expectations of 4.6%. On a monthly basis, producer prices were unchanged, versus expectations of a 1.2% increase, suggesting pipeline inflation pressures may be less intense than feared so far. However, the market still expects the Federal Reserve to leave rates unchanged.
Corporate Movers
JPMorgan Chase (NYSE:JPM) is rising after posting stronger-than-expected Q1 earnings, driven by record trading revenue and robust investment banking activity. Earnings per share came in at $5.90, above the $5.45 expected, while revenue rose 10% year-on-year to $50.5 billion.
Wells Fargo (NYSE:WFC) is under pressure despite a slight earnings beat, as revenue missed expectations, pointing to ongoing challenges in core banking operations.
Globalstar is surging following reports that Amazon is nearing a deal to acquire the satellite operator.
Nasdaq is gaining after announcing a partnership with OpenAI to enhance data analytics and pattern recognition capabilities.
Nasdaq 100 Forecast - Technical Analysis
The Nasdaq 100 has extended its recovery from the 22,780 low, breaking above descending trendline resistance and reclaiming the 200-day moving average, reaching around 25,500 — levels last seen in February.
Momentum indicators remain supportive, with the RSI pointing to further upside while still below overbought territory. A sustained move higher could target 26,200 and potentially fresh record highs.
On the downside, support lies at 25,000, followed by the 200-day SMA near 24,600. A break below this zone would expose the 24,000 level, which aligns with the March lows and trendline support.
FX Markets – USD Falls, GBP/USD Rises
The U.S. dollar remains under pressure, falling for a seventh consecutive session as safe-haven demand fades and market sentiment improves.
EUR/USD is extending gains, supported by a weaker dollar and rising eurozone inflation signals. Spanish inflation has been revised up to 3.4% year-on-year, while German wholesale prices jumped 2.7% month-on-month, highlighting the pass-through of higher energy costs. ECB President Christine Lagarde speaks later today
GBP/USD is also rising, moving back towards 1.3550, supported by improved risk sentiment and lower oil prices, which ease inflation pressures for the UK given its reliance on imported energy. Comments from Andrew Bailey will be in focus for further policy signals.
Oil Falls Back Below $100 on Peace Hopes
Oil prices have fallen back below $100 per barrel on expectations that U.S.-Iran talks could resume, despite Washington’s move to blockade the Strait of Hormuz.
While the blockade initially pushed prices higher, hopes of renewed diplomacy are now helping to ease supply concerns.
The International Energy Agency has warned that the conflict could weigh on global oil demand growth, potentially marking the first annual decline since the pandemic. However, supply disruptions remain significant, with reports indicating sharp declines in output due to restricted shipping flows through the region.