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The stock market has had an impressive move, but time may be running out. The most pressing issue is that today is tax day, which means the Treasury General Account (TGA) is likely to rise significantly—potentially moving back above $1 trillion from its current $759 billion, up from $703 billion just on Monday.
As a result, reserve balances held at the Fed are likely to decline meaningfully from here. They have already slipped back below $3.1 trillion and are probably headed toward the $2.9 trillion level.
This could begin to put pressure on overnight funding rates, potentially similar to the strains we saw in the fall. That said, these dynamics are relatively easy to monitor, and we will know it when we see it.
The dispersion trade also appears to be running very hot, which is evident in the S&P 500 Dispersion Index. It has surged to 37.5 from 29.3 at the end of March.
This is most clearly reflected in the recent moves in mega-cap stocks. The dispersion index is already back near its highs and at levels where it has historically topped out.
Typically, when the dispersion index peaks and begins to trade sideways or lower, the broader stock market tends to follow a similar path.
Additionally, the spread between dispersion and implied correlation has widened back to its highs. This is largely the mechanical effect of earnings season, as funds position for rising single-stock implied volatility against falling index-level implied volatility.
However, this is not a typical environment. We are not in a normal earnings cycle—we are in the middle of a geopolitical conflict, with critical global trade routes under pressure.
That makes the risks this time materially higher than during a standard earnings season.
Just look back to February, when staples were seen as part of a “healthy rotation” trade—that didn’t age well.
Take a simple example. Suppose S&P 500 implied volatility, as measured by the VIX, is being pushed lower as part of this trade, while the implied volatility of a mega-cap stock is rising. That would be a favorable setup for dispersion.
However, consider a different scenario. What if the VIX is being driven lower ahead of options expiration by dealer hedging flows—specifically, collapsing call delta forcing dealers to unwind hedges? Then, once VIX options expiration passes, the VIX snaps higher, and does so faster than single-stock implied volatility—say, something like Meta. That would not be a favorable outcome for the trade.
Take today as an example, with VIX options expiration. The VIX has clearly been pushed lower over the past couple of days, as call premiums decay, forcing hedges to unwind and driving the index down toward 18—coinciding with the put wall.
But what if implied volatility wasn’t actually declining in a fundamental sense? What if it only appeared that way because of how the VIX moves along the S&P 500 implied volatility curve?
If that is the case, the VIX could be falling not because volatility is truly compressing, but simply because the S&P 500 is rising. Meanwhile, implied volatility at fixed strike levels could actually be increasing.
So while it may look like volatility is coming down, what’s really happening under the surface is more nuanced—fixed-strike vol rising even as the VIX falls.
Tricky stuff. That would be a brutal unwinding process, especially if liquidity dries up.
Who really knows, though?