Trump says Iran war "close to over" amid hopes for more negotiations
USD/CHF is rolling after another failure at .8041, slipping back below the 200DMA into key support as Trump’s address looms
- USD/CHF fails again at .8041 with reversal signals building
- Price slips below the 200DMA, March uptrend support nears
- Trump address the near-term catalyst for a break or bounce
Latest Failure Shifts the Tone
We’ve seen a textbook failure for USD/CHF at .8041, the year-to-date high set on January 15, resulting in a gravestone doji, a reversal signal strengthened by the fact it arrived after a prolonged uptrend.
While the bullish structure that’s been in place since the start of March remains intact for now, the follow-up candle on Wednesday completes an evening star, another reversal pattern, taking the price beneath the influential 200DMA and within touching distance of the March uptrend.
The bulls will be getting nervous given the message from the oscillators, with RSI (14) breaking beneath the uptrend it had been in since the latter part of January. It remains above the neutral 50 level at 58 for now, but upside strength is waning, not building. While not yet confirmed by MACD, it’s narrowing back towards the signal line having sat above it for well over a month, again suggesting bullish momentum may be in the early stages of turning.
Source: TradingView
200DMA Lost, March Trend Under Pressure
Technically, the focus on Thursday will be the zone between the 200DMA, which also corresponds with the November 2025 downtrend, and uptrend support dating back to the start of March, providing either a base to launch fresh longs or a ceiling to establish shorts, depending on how the price action evolves following Donald Trump’s televised address updating the nation on progress in Operation ‘Epic Fury’. Given likely volatility around the event, risk management should be prioritised when assessing setups.
For those playing from the long side, .7970 is a level to watch overhead given it’s acted as both support and resistance for lengthy periods so far in 2026. Beyond that, .8041 looms as a far tougher hurdle for bulls considering we’ve now seen multiple failures at the level, providing a decent entry point for shorts if the price struggles there again, should it be revisited. If the price were to break sustainably above .8041, .8086 and .8100 previously capped bullish moves in the latter part of 2025.
Should we see a break of the bullish structure with a sustained breach of the March uptrend, Wednesday’s low just above .7900 is a reference point before more substantive support arrives at .7850. The 50DMA is also flattening out around .7800, making it something to keep on the radar given the price has recently had a knack of respecting it.
Trump Addresses the Swing Factor
As for Donald Trump’s address, speculation is rife as to what he may convey. Some believe he’ll announce a limited ground invasion to secure the Strait of Hormuz, others think he’ll flag a winding back of military operations, leaving the issue of getting energy supply through the Strait to negotiators and other nations.
My sense is that if he were to announce ‘boots on the ground’, it would be more likely late Thursday rather than Wednesday, given the implications for energy prices and markets, which would be negative for risk appetite and likely weigh on the franc, pointing to upside risks for USD/CHF. If the announcement lowers energy prices and bolsters confidence that supply may soon start to normalise, it would add to downside risks for USD/CHF already emanating from the technicals.