Trump says Iran war "close to over" amid hopes for more negotiations
Investing.com -- BCA Research cautiously welcomed the U.S.-Iran ceasefire, but warned in a note this week that the truce remains fragile, with the firm's chief geopolitical strategist assigning a 40% probability that it collapses before the end of April.
Chief Strategist Peter Berezin stated that the ceasefire should provide further near-term support to equity markets, prompting BCA to move to neutral on stocks on a short-term tactical horizon.
However, the firm is retaining its 12-month underweight to equities, citing unresolved tensions and broader risks to the AI trade.
BCA's Chief Geopolitical Strategist Matt Gertken believes "there is a 40% chance that the ceasefire blows up before the end of April, and a 60% chance it fails to survive for more than 12 months."
“There is still a large gap between what the US and Iran claim they agreed to, suggesting that the truce was reached quickly and hap-hazardly,” said BCA. “In particular, there is little agreement over the question of nuclear enrichment and Israel’s operations in Lebanon.”
BCA also flagged an unexpected dimension of the ceasefire framework, noting U.S. President Donald Trump's apparent willingness to allow Iran to charge tolls for transit through the Strait of Hormuz.
Berezin highlighted that Trump described it to ABC News as a potential "joint venture."
Beyond geopolitics, BCA warned that the AI trade faces its own structural headwinds, arguing that the same forces making AI transformative will ultimately compress tech profit margins.
On monetary policy, BCA said rate expectations remain too hawkish regardless of the ceasefire outcome, and identified the U.S. dollar as likely to resume weakening while calling gold a structural buy on dips.
