USD/TRY - US Dollar Turkish Lira

Osmaaaaaan

USD/TRY 44.248

Asking Dwayne for advise on the Lira, that's a joke. Carry trade in "this", as in "today's" TL volatile market? Another joke. That's two bullets aimed at your head at the same time. Compare that to "picking up pennies in front of a steamroller." In the context of the Turkish Lira in March 2026, the steamroller is currently accelerating. 240K TL just disappeared, poof, gone, from just one Para Piyasası fund account in four days. This inflated TL rate will hang for the weekend and you can bet it will not ease on Monday. The writing is on the wall. Here is the "real" deep-dive analysis based on your question Stefan: As of March 13, 2026, the Turkish Lira is navigating a high-stakes "holding pattern" defined by geopolitical shocks, a critical legal deadline for currency controls, and a new era of crypto taxation. 1. Monetary Policy & Inflation: The "Real Rate" Trap The CBRT Stance: On March 12, 2026, the Central Bank (CBRT) kept the policy rate unchanged at 37.00%. This was a pivotal shift; the bank abandoned its previous "easing bias" (rate-cutting path) due to rising energy costs and geopolitical instability. The "Real" Inflation Reality: February 2026 inflation hit 31.53%. While the "nominal" rate (37%) is higher than inflation, giving a +5.47% real interest rate, market confidence is shaky. The CBRT just hiked its end-2026 inflation forecast to 15%–21%, signaling that they expect price pressures to be stickier than previously hoped. The "Real" Takeaway Stefan: The Lira has a thin cushion. If inflation spikes toward 35% due to oil prices (currently over $100/bbl), that "real rate" vanishes, likely triggering a sell-off. If you are not ready for that, you lose "Biggly". 2. Carry Trade & DXY: Global Winds Are Shifting Investors who borrowed in USD to buy TRY are seeing their profits eaten by a strengthening Dollar and the rapid de-valuation of the TRY. If you don't make the profits, you can't pay back the loan. That's the bullet to the head on both sides at once I mentioned earlier. DXY (Dollar Index): The DXY is currently showing a "bullish gap," trading near 99.75. Tensions in the Middle East and strong US labor data have turned the Dollar into a global safe haven. Impact: A strong Dollar usually forces Emerging Market currencies like the Lira to devalue faster to keep exports competitive and prevent capital flight. 3. Devaluation Velocity: The Next 6–12 Months Trend: The Lira "had" been in a simi "controlled slide." However, the CBRT reportedly burned through $22 billion in reserves in just one week recently to defend this level. Projection: Analysts expect the Lira to test 48.00–50.00 by year-end if oil stays high. That expectation "was" based on "moderate" velocity, but the high cost of intervention makes a "sudden adjustment" (a sharp 5-10% drop in a week) a significant risk. 4. Capital Controls & The "July 15" Deadline This is the most critical factor for your ability to move assets. The Legal Vacuum: In late 2025, the Constitutional Court annulled the President’s power to unilaterally impose currency controls (Law No. 1567). The Deadline: Parliament has until July 15, 2026, to pass a new law. The Risk: Between now and July, there is a "legal gray zone." If the government feels capital flight is accelerating, they may rush a very restrictive new law through Parliament before July to "re-limit" foreign exchange outflows. Crypto Tax: A new bill was presented in early March this year proposing a 10% withholding tax on crypto gains and a 0.03% transaction fee. This signals that the "crypto exit" is being actively fenced in by the tax authorities. 5. Actionable Risk Triage: Red Flags to Watch If you are holding Lira, you should consider converting to USD, Gold, or Hard Assets if you see any of the following Trigger Events: Red Flags you should be paying close attention to: DXY breaks 102.00 Significance: Triggers a global exodus from emerging markets; TRY will be the first to fall. CBRT Reserves drop <$10B Significance: (Net of swaps) This means the "bullets" to defend the Lira are gone. New "Currency Law" in June: Watch for wording in the new Law 1567 replacement that limits "individual FX transfers." Oil stays >$110/bbl: Turkey’s energy import bill will become unsustainable, forcing a devaluation. The Turkish Lira was currently in a "managed decline". In markets, that is often the most dangerous phase for an individual holder because that "assumed" stability is artificial. It is being bought with expensive central bank reserves. The future sentiment and what you were really trying to ask about Stefan : The "Stability" Mirage: Don't mistake that past mirage of a "controlled de-valuation" movement for safety. The Central Bank is essentially "spending" to keep the Lira at 44. If they stop, or if their reserves hit a floor, the jump to 50+ could happen in a single week. The Regulatory Squeeze: The government is no longer just watching the Lira; they are actively building a "tax fence" around the exits. The move to tax crypto and Precious Metals (Special Consumption Tax on certain stones/metals) indicates they want to make it expensive for you to leave the Lira. The 2026 Trap: In April 2026, Turkey is launching the Precious Metals Tracking System (KMTS). TRY cash is dead. You will no longer legally be able to buy or sell gold with cash at a jeweler. It must be a bank transfer or card. Traceability: Every gram of gold will have a "digital footprint" (banderol). If you hold "untracked" gold from before 2026, you may face difficulty selling it into the formal market later. Market Sentiment: Professional traders have been treating the Lira as a "hot potato" for quite a while. They were happy to take the 37% interest. But now, but they have their fingers on the "sell" button. When the big money leaves, they leave all at once, usually leaving individual retail holders stuck in the slide. The Friendly "Bottom Line" for you Stefan: If you have a major life expense, a need for hard currency, or plans to move capital, treat May 2026 as your personal deadline. The combination of a stronger US Dollar (DXY) and the July 15 legislative deadline in Turkey creates a "perfect storm" for volatility in the second half of the year. Pay Attention: If you wait until everyone else is panicking at the bank or on the exchange apps in June, the "slippage" and fees will likely "COST YOU MORE" than any interest you earned. In short: It is better to be three months too early in converting than one day too late. The End.

hi Dwain how you think usdtry will trade when US-Iran war would start, push higher 1-2%?

Yet another year with good returns for investors in Lira which started the year around 35 finishing around 43 with roughly 23% drop ( whilst interest rates generated an average of 35% income) making net returns of around 12% ,, (vs 15% in 2024 ) …

60000

It will hit 200 soon

Correcrion may finally be coming soon. Bearish!

This was exactly as Dwain wrote. But what they did with the lyra is still nonsense. I would include a monthly candlestick chart here if I could, but it wouldn't even let me attach my own chart. Nearly 400% increase since September 2021 (USDTRY), RSI between 88-98 since November 2021, without correction. There is no such thing in the world. This is neither technically nor fundamentally wrong. On top of that, the dollar is extremely weak. I have been a lira buyer for years, as I also short the US indices due to the completely extreme and baseless, common sense and reality-free increase. The lira could strengthen by at least 12% almost immediately, but otherwise 33% in the longer term, which would be normal. Even though there are problems in Turkey, there are huge problems in the USA too.

To the moon!

What a one way street! It has been 5 years now without any correction

What the

Its clear most people on this forum are talking without trading the lira,, if you went long USDTRY since April 2024 you would have LOST money ( YES LOST MONEY ),, the interest charged on short positions on lira is more than the percentage gain in the dollar vs lira ,, to be precise, i have been long lira ( or short USDTRY) since around May 2024 ,, the lira dropped around 25% in this period, the net return from interest paid on lira holdings after taxes was around 40% so overall a 15% return in around 14 months ,, yes bit of risk involved but the overall reward is accepatable imo,, had it not been for the March turbulence the returns would have been greater,, I think going forward it may not be as sweet but it will now mostly depend on what the FED does, if there's a cycle of FED easing of policy then the lira will continue to be a profitable trade,, personally i cut my long lira position size to around 20% of what it was as the picture is not clear at the moment.

easiest trade on Earth. Continually up in a 45 degree angle since 2020

Is the Rurkish Lira the shîttíest currency in the world? [ ] yes!! [ ] of course! [ ] sure!

To 60

back to the July/Aug 2024 trend

Does it ever come down? I can't fathom such dsiky weakness in a currency

Excluding Erdogan, Turkey has a population of 85 million, the 17th largest economy, inflation is falling, and the central bank's actions are quite strong. The lira is not overvalued at all, on the contrary, it is terribly undervalued and is weakening a lot due to speculators. It should have strengthened a long time ago with the weakening USD. It is sheer stupidity to sell the lira and believe that the Turkish economy is falling apart. I say it again, there is a good and correct direction, buy the lira! I am an investment economist, I know what I am talking about. Most traders do not see the deeper connections. They have no or insufficient knowledge of economic geography, history, or culture.

Good

I read speculative and misleading comments on TL. The economy in Turkey is falling apart and a major devaluation is expected anytime. TL is overvalued and several major producers have gone bankrupt because of overvalued TL. This is why you shouldbe very careful for your TL investments.

Helloka But this is stupidity, what they are speculating about, there is no such thing as a currency being constantly, despite all the positives, being completely artificially devalued. Wake up! You should NOT go in the direction of the trend, like sheep. Now everyone should stop selling the lira, okay? Especially the small speculators. You should buy the lira! The interest rate on the lira is almost 50%, not even the weekly weakening can overcome this. Nonsense really, unfortunately the market has not understood the market for a long time, this is clearly visible. What has happened in the past two months alone illustrates this. The majority of investors have as much memory as a goldfish. :-)

Currently even longing USD against TRY with leverage makes insane money even though borrowing TRY is expensive. It increases by %0.30 every friday in 5 mins giving insane returns in daily trades.

Who are these idiot speculators who are constantly buying and selling the lira every day? And at about the same time. Hasn't it weakened enough? This is nonsense. No matter how much the USD weakens, the lira will continue to weaken? What is this? Guys, I'm telling you, there is no such thing, this is not valid. The lira clearly needs to strengthen. Moreover, the central bank recently raised the one-week repo rate to 46%. By carrying trade or investing in the lira, you can get a much better return than betting against the lira. Imamoglu's arrest is of course a very ugly thing, but the incredible and historic currency devaluation that was observed at that time was also extremely stupid. De facto, the lira MUST be bought and not sold, the lira MUST strengthen and not weaken!!! Unfortunately, many people, especially in the West and America, do not understand or know anything about the Turkish economy. This is not just a speculative game, guys, it is never just that. Anyone who thinks like this and plays the stock market like this and only chases money is very wrong.